4.4.10 Foresighting (trends, weak signals and wild cards)
Version 1.1 by Evdokimos Konstantinidis on 2021/10/21 14:36
Description: Foresighting is a practice of exploring expected and alternative futures. Trend is a general tendency or direction evident from past events increasing or decreasing in strength of frequency of observation. A weak signal is an indicator of a potentially emerging issue that may become significant in the future. “Wild card” is high-impact event that seem too incredible or is considered too unlikely to happen; yet many do happen.
R&D service categories: Market and competitor intelligence services, Co-creation
Objectives:
- policy consulting,
- create a future vision,
- identify new opportunities and risks,
Methods: back casting, brainstorming, user/citizen panels, workshop/session, expert panel, interview, literature review, role playing, scenarios, survey, SWOT, wild card & weak signals, Science fiction/crazy ideas